Consensus PnL $78K · win rate 86% (339–53, n=392) · hand-picked wallet · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$77.9K
Record
339W / 53L
Win Rate
86.0%
of 392 settled
Batting Avg
48.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#313
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
11,387
Markets
508
Volume
$9.9M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 12 on the consensus side (75%)- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $38K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $29K · now 97¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (90% of 51)
- Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No $17K · now 94¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes $14K · now 56¢ · in at 63¢against the consensus (No)
- Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes $13K · now 73¢ · in at 76¢against the consensus (No)
- Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes $11K · now 88¢ · in at 85¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $6.4K · now 65¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No $4.9K · now 98¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (92% of 25)
Specialties
443 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 85¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 90% of 68 · avg entry 87¢
ROI 0%
- Economy
+3 pts
side won 95% of 38 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +3%
- Elections
+8 pts
side won 72% of 29 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 95% of 55 at an average 97¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 9% of 34)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 35% of 17)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 63% of 24)
- 70¢ and up: 83%(won 97% of 368)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.