Consensus PnL $107K · win rate 79% (2622–718, n=3340) · PM monthly #497 · holds 56 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$106.9K
Record
2622W / 718L
Win Rate
79.0%
of 3340 settled
Batting Avg
57.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#458
Source
PM monthly #497
Trades
4,149
Markets
4,697
Volume
$1.8M
Top consensus positions
56 in listed consensus markets · 37 of 56 on the consensus side (66%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $4.8K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Israeli Knesset election annulled?No $4.3K · now 96¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- US recession by end of 2026?No $3.4K · now 95¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
- Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?No $3.0K · now 93¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (65% of 17)
- Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31?No $1.9K · now 96¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $1.8K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?No $1.8K · now 81¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (57% of 14)
- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?No $1.7K · now 96¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
Specialties
2,010 settled consensus markets · held side won 65% at an average entry of 57¢- Geopolitics
+8 pts
side won 63% of 442 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +3%
- Elections
+8 pts
side won 67% of 380 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +5%
- Crypto
+10 pts
side won 54% of 160 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 48% of 54 at an average 51¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 32%(won 16% of 649)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 52% of 148)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 78% of 279)
- 70¢ and up: 46%(won 96% of 934)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.