Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $10 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$9.73

Combined PnL

-$409.87

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$6.03

Total Shares12,064

Combined PnL-$409.97

No1 trader

Total Value$3.7

Total Shares4

Combined PnL+$0.09

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alex20011CTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$282.75	$4.1	-$278.65	48% 3491-3823 (7314)
RA rated<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$3.61	$3.7	+$0.09	29% 2865-6952 (9817)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yes	$1.93	$1.93	-$131.32	52% 5045-4715 (9760)

alex20011CTR

Yes

Invested

$282.75

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$278.65

Record

48%

3491-3823 (7314)

rated<$100

Invested

$3.61

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.09

Record

29%

2865-6952 (9817)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.93

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$131.32

Record

52%

5045-4715 (9760)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.