Consensus PnL -$2.0M · win rate 8% (190–2103, n=2293) · hand-picked wallet · holds 28 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-2.0M
Record
190W / 2103L
Win Rate
8.0%
of 2293 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2257
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
728,378
Markets
11,301
Volume
$39.4M
Top consensus positions
28 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 28 on the consensus side (39%)- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $19 · now 38¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (78% of 39)
- Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?Yes $7 · now 64¢ · in at 11¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No $5 · now 58¢ · in at 65¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $4 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢against the consensus (Yes)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No $4 · now 88¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (67% of 51)
- Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No $3 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No $3 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (29% of 7)
- Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No $3 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (29% of 7)
Specialties
5,183 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 92¢- Entertainment
+9 pts
side won 97% of 768 · avg entry 89¢
ROI −30%
- Weather
+11 pts
side won 98% of 105 · avg entry 87¢
ROI −19%
- Other Sports
+9 pts
side won 98% of 198 · avg entry 89¢
ROI −33%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 89% of 18 at an average 89¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 74% of 274)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 65% of 63)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 90% of 100)
- 70¢ and up: 92%(won 100% of 4746)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.