Consensus PnL $203K · win rate 54% (4210–3517, n=7727) · PM monthly #371 · holds 35 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$202.8K
Record
4210W / 3517L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 7727 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1481
Source
PM monthly #371
Trades
3,772
Markets
11,359
Volume
$2.5M
Top consensus positions
35 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 35 on the consensus side (54%)- Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?No $1.2K · now 71¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (56% of 25)
- Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?No $483 · now 30¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will LeBron James win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?No $31 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Jaylen Brown win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?No $29 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Giannis Antetokounmpo win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?No $28 · now 97¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Yes $4 · now 92¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?No $4 · now 98¢ · in at 75¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?No $4 · now 99¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
4,519 settled consensus markets · held side won 72% at an average entry of 70¢- Tech
+3 pts
side won 66% of 321 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +5%
- Economy
+4 pts
side won 76% of 134 · avg entry 72¢
ROI 0%
- Other Sports
+8 pts
side won 73% of 49 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +12%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 70% of 620 at an average 70¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 12% of 986)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 47% of 260)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 65% of 330)
- 70¢ and up: 65%(won 95% of 2943)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.