Consensus PnL $196K · win rate 52% (2857–2660, n=5517) · PM monthly #41 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$196.5K
Record
2857W / 2660L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 5517 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1606
Source
PM monthly #41
Trades
594
Markets
7,031
Volume
$1.0M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 6 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-04 House election by 15%-20%?No $28 · now 67¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $13 · now 0¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $4 · now 0¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $4 · now 0¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $3 · now 0¢ · in at 8¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $1 · now 0¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
Specialties
1,347 settled consensus markets · held side won 72% at an average entry of 71¢- Crypto
+10 pts
side won 20% of 54 · avg entry 10¢
ROI +4%
- MLB
+3 pts
side won 75% of 12 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +32%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 72% of 204 at an average 72¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 10% of 223)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 50% of 123)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 64% of 146)
- 70¢ and up: 63%(won 93% of 855)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.