Will David Bailey win the 2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 76¢ · $950 held · ends Feb 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$950.38
$5.41
74.2¢ → 75.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CUTJALENHURTS | Noavg 74.2¢ | $737.83 | $740.99 | +$3.16 | 52% 6019-5625 (11644) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 70.2¢ | $170.48 | $168.67 | -$0.86 | 14% 513-3102 (3615) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 70.2¢ | $118.38 | $127.35 | +$8.92 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30.3¢ | $51.13 | $41.32 | -$9.78 | |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $31.28 | $33.27 | +$1.99 | — 4-0 (4) |
ND ndb1<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $7.2 | $7.45 | +$0.25 | 65% 957-513 (1470) |
CUTJALENHURTSInvested
$737.83
Value
$740.99
PnL
+$3.16
Record
52%
6019-5625 (11644)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$170.48
Value
$168.67
PnL
-$0.86
Record
14%
513-3102 (3615)
Both legs:
Invested
$31.28
Value
$33.27
PnL
+$1.99
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$7.45
PnL
+$0.25
Record
65%
957-513 (1470)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.