Consensus PnL $683K · win rate 52% (5414–4965, n=10379) · PM monthly #109 · holds 110 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$682.6K
Record
5414W / 4965L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 10379 settled
Batting Avg
60.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1732
Source
PM monthly #109
Record (90 d)
1587/2340 · 68%
Trades
92,434
Markets
12,368
Volume
$86.4M
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Top consensus positions
110 in listed consensus markets · 73 of 110 on the consensus side (66%)- Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $53K · now 91¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (35% of 17)
- Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?No $38K · now 77¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $35K · now 68¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (62% of 150)
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?No $20K · now 94¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Oregon Ducks win the 2027 CFP National Championship?No $14K · now 100¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (29% of 7)
- Will Florida Gators win the 2027 CFP National Championship?No $14K · now 99¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (13% of 8)
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $13K · now 90¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (50% of 24)
- Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $11K · now 86¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (13% of 24)
Specialties
10,253 settled consensus markets · held side won 54% at an average entry of 51¢- NBA
+8 pts
side won 59% of 1723 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +7%
- College Football
+7 pts
side won 58% of 674 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +9%
- NFL
+5 pts
side won 59% of 958 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Other Sports — held side won 49% of 164 at an average 50¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 19% of 1347)
- 30–50¢: 35%(won 46% of 3634)
- 50–70¢: 35%(won 61% of 3558)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 86% of 1714)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.