Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will David Raya (Arsenal) record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 Premier League season?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 32¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 33%
$1.4K
-$459.66
Research grade
NeutralNo at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 thefakenickCTR | Noavg 28.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$477.58 | 50% 925-910 (1835) |
ND ndb1<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $54.49 | $68.49 | +$14 | 64% 1050-594 (1644) |
PU purplegatto<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | $15.26 | $19.18 | +$3.92 | 49% 6326-6481 (12807) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.