Consensus PnL $57K · win rate 60% (680–451, n=1131) · PM monthly #264 · holds 24 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$57.4K
Record
680W / 451L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 1131 settled
Batting Avg
59.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1178
Source
PM monthly #264
Record (90 d)
37/80 · 46%
Trades
2,225
Markets
1,749
Volume
$8.0M
Top consensus positions
24 in listed consensus markets · 21 of 24 on the consensus side (88%)- Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Yes $2.9K · now 23¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Yes $2.5K · now 72¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (57% of 21)
- Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $855 · now 13¢with the consensus (94% of 16)
- Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $488 · now 5¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (100% of 18)
- Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No $441 · now 75¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (47% of 81)
- Will Benfica win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?No $298 · now 85¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?Yes $268 · now 54¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $221 · now 7¢ · in at 6¢with the consensus (96% of 23)
Specialties
1,123 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 46¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 58% of 106 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +1%
- Crypto
+7 pts
side won 78% of 46 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +2%
- Entertainment
+5 pts
side won 55% of 22 · avg entry 49¢
ROI −3%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 19% of 31 at an average 25¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 47%(won 5% of 524)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 36% of 74)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 61% of 72)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 96% of 453)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.