Consensus PnL -$1.8M · win rate 50% (5110–5031, n=10141) · PM monthly #99 · holds 20 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-1.8M
Record
5110W / 5031L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 10141 settled
Batting Avg
45.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1726
Source
PM monthly #99
Trades
14,695
Markets
13,403
Volume
$32.6M
Top consensus positions
20 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 20 on the consensus side (60%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $41K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $39K · now 73¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $36K · now 72¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $32K · now 75¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (58% of 38)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $30K · now 71¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?No $22K · now 84¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (29% of 8)
- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-01?Yes $18K · now 82¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (44% of 16)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $17K · now 99¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
Specialties
4,350 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 62¢- College Football
+45 pts
side won 100% of 168 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +44%
- Esports
+42 pts
side won 100% of 340 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +41%
- MLB
+42 pts
side won 98% of 960 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +31%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 87% of 246)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 97% of 927)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 98% of 1691)
- 70¢ and up: 34%(won 100% of 1486)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.