Will Democrats sweep the Alaska Senate and Governor elections?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 72¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes72¢No28¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$67.76

Smart Money Entry

70.6¢ → 71.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$486.35

Total Shares1,706

Combined PnL-$77.81

Yes2 traders

Total Value$526.09

Total Shares741

Combined PnL+$10.05

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Noavg 25.5¢	$311.52	$486	-$77.81	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yesavg 72¢	$489.93	$483.19	-$6.8	69% 156-69 (225)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$22	$42.9	+$16.85	18% 3832-17370 (21202)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$0.35	$0.35	+$0	38% 20-32 (52)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Invested

$311.52

Value

$486

PnL

-$77.81

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$489.93

Value

$483.19

PnL

-$6.8

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$22

Value

$42.9

PnL

+$16.85

Record

18%

3832-17370 (21202)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.3%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.