Back to Traders
C3
Consensus PnL $170K · win rate 62% (16–10, n=26) · PM monthly #158 · holds 159 consensus positions
0xc301c1e0...a00466aaPolymarket
⚖️Arb🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$170.2K
Record
16W / 10L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 26 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1094
Source
PM monthly #158
Trades
114
Markets
204
Volume
$771.0K
Top consensus positions
159 in listed consensus markets · 112 of 159 on the consensus side (70%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $83K · now 72¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $76K · now 84¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (72% of 48)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $58K · now 79¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (69% of 30)
- Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?No $47K · now 91¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (47% of 17)
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No $39K · now 81¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (62% of 37)
- Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Yes $32K · now 91¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (47% of 19)
- Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No $31K · now 78¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (52% of 33)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $29K · now 70¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
Specialties
25 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 85¢- Elections
+20 pts
side won 100% of 15 · avg entry 80¢
ROI −6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 100% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 80%(won 100% of 20)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.