Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 54% (871–748, n=1619) · PM monthly #700 · holds 198 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$12.1K
Record
871W / 748L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 1619 settled
Batting Avg
51.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1493
Source
PM monthly #700
Trades
18,875
Markets
4,267
Volume
$4.8M
Top consensus positions
198 in listed consensus markets · 105 of 198 on the consensus side (53%)- SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?No $1.7K · now 95¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (78% of 10)
- Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Yes $1.5K · now 16¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
- Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?No $1.4K · now 85¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?No $1.3K · now 16¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?No $929 · now 96¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $805 · now 56¢ · in at 81¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $787 · now 89¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (57% of 55)
- Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?No $639 · now 85¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
Specialties
1,744 settled consensus markets · held side won 77% at an average entry of 67¢- Elections
+14 pts
side won 90% of 402 · avg entry 76¢
ROI 0%
- Entertainment
+16 pts
side won 86% of 177 · avg entry 70¢
ROI −2%
- NHL
+15 pts
side won 91% of 68 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +18%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 55% of 74 at an average 61¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 20% of 333)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 62% of 152)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 74% of 204)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 97% of 1055)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.