Will Democrats win young men in the midterms?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 88¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$1.4K
$128.01
80.2¢ → 87.5¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 bernardbulletin | Yesavg 75.9¢ | $788.07 | $889.37 | +$111.91 | 69% 1005-451 (1456) |
 KimchiCapital | Yesavg 88.5¢ | $467.73 | $462.19 | +$15.59 | 76% 590-189 (779) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $3.74 | $4.25 | +$0.51 | 23% 178-602 (780) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.