Consensus PnL $30K · win rate 77% (545–167, n=712) · was PM monthly #992 · holds 29 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$30.0K
Record
545W / 167L
Win Rate
77.0%
of 712 settled
Batting Avg
51.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#512
Source
PM monthly #992
Trades
660
Markets
880
Volume
$244.4K
Top consensus positions
29 in listed consensus markets · 23 of 29 on the consensus side (79%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $5.7K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Yes $2.4K · now 75¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?Yes $1.3K · now 62¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes $1.3K · now 82¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (67% of 15)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes $1.2K · now 66¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (54% of 13)
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 54¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (74% of 27)
- Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?Yes $903 · now 53¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
- Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?Yes $586 · now 36¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
Specialties
557 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 67¢- Tech
+12 pts
side won 81% of 101 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +12%
- Entertainment
+9 pts
side won 80% of 107 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +8%
- Elections
+7 pts
side won 68% of 117 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 74% of 19 at an average 75¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 15% of 80)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 54% of 57)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 79% of 102)
- 70¢ and up: 57%(won 94% of 318)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.