Consensus PnL $184K · win rate 71% (708–295, n=1003) · was PM monthly #722 · holds 84 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$184.5K
Record
708W / 295L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 1003 settled
Batting Avg
72.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#687
Source
PM monthly #722 + pinned
Trades
23,667
Markets
1,706
Volume
$1.4M
Top consensus positions
84 in listed consensus markets · 61 of 84 on the consensus side (73%)- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $64K · now 44¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (64% of 62)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $16K · now 53¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $14K · now 3¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 21)
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $10K · now 52¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (58% of 33)
- Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $8.6K · now 5¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (100% of 18)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $7.1K · now 70¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $6.3K · now 44¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $5.6K · now 2¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 18)
Specialties
1,039 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 56¢- Mentions
+7 pts
side won 64% of 493 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +5%
- Elections
+5 pts
side won 57% of 243 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +4%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 71% of 112 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +16%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 40% of 15 at an average 53¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 23%(won 15% of 238)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 45% of 186)
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 68% of 228)
- 70¢ and up: 37%(won 94% of 387)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.