Consensus PnL -$186 · win rate 21% (129–484, n=613) · PM monthly #882 · holds 34 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
-$185.69
Record
129W / 484L
Win Rate
21.0%
of 613 settled
Batting Avg
23.5%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2595
Source
PM monthly #882
Record (90 d)
37/277 · 13%
Trades
308
Markets
1,181
Volume
$124.4K
Top consensus positions
34 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 34 on the consensus side (35%)- Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?No $87 · now 67¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?No $85 · now 85¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?No $84 · now 91¢ · in at 86¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Abdul El-Sayed run 0 to 3 points behind Jocelyn Benson?No $75 · now 71¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?Yes $61 · now 74¢ · in at 73¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 0%-3%?No $41 · now 75¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?Yes $36 · now 14¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.50T and $1.75T?No $35 · now 39¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
199 settled consensus markets · held side won 8% at an average entry of 13¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where SulkingCrypto's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 4% of 23 at an average 18¢ entry (−14 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 88%(won 4% of 175)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 20% of 10)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 50% of 8)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 33% of 6)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.