Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on November 10?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$9.8K
$-2.2K
95.6¢ → 94.8¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $11.7K | $9.2K | $-2.5K | 61% 38-24 (62) |
EA Eager47259CTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $169.81 | $286.54 | +$133.28 | 40% 29-44 (73) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR | Yesavg 2¢ | $72.86 | $229.81 | +$167.05 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
SH Sharky6999<$100 | Noavg 75.2¢ | $48.13 | $48.13 | +$0 | 100% 30-0 (30) |
Invested
$11,698.92
Value
$9.2K
PnL
$-2.5K
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
Invested
$169.81
Value
$286.54
PnL
+$133.28
Record
40%
29-44 (73)
Invested
$72.86
Value
$229.81
PnL
+$167.05
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$48.13
Value
$48.13
PnL
+$0
Record
100%
30-0 (30)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.