Consensus PnL $509K · win rate 99% (6740–91, n=6831) · was PM monthly #494 · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$509.0K
Record
6740W / 91L
Win Rate
99.0%
of 6831 settled
Batting Avg
64.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#85
Source
PM monthly #494 + pinned
Trades
117,500
Markets
7,286
Volume
$162.0M
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 13 on the consensus side (85%)- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 October 26-November 1?No $30K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 1?No $5.1K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 1?No $3.5K · now 100¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 1?Yes $901 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 1?Yes $891 · now 100¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1?No $599 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on November 1?Yes $562 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on November 1?Yes $492 · now 100¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
Specialties
6,067 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 97¢- Finance
+3 pts
side won 99% of 120 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +2%
- Politics
+2 pts
side won 93% of 14 · avg entry 90¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 99% of 363 at an average 99¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 21% of 71)
- 30–50¢: 0%(won 63% of 24)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 74% of 42)
- 70¢ and up: 98%(won 99% of 5930)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.