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06
Consensus PnL -$2.1M · win rate 97% (437–12, n=449) · PM monthly #282 · holds 46 consensus positions
0x06dc5182...05b04524Polymarket
🐋Whale⚖️Arb🎯Sharp🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$-2.1M
Record
437W / 12L
Win Rate
97.0%
of 449 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#117
Source
PM monthly #282
Trades
700
Markets
3,771
Volume
$67.4M
Top consensus positions
46 in listed consensus markets · 43 of 46 on the consensus side (93%)- Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on November 1?No $69K · now 99¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Ethereum Up or Down on November 1?Up $56K · now 97¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Bitcoin Up or Down on November 1?Up $48K · now 98¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 1?Yes $40K · now 100¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 1?No $35K · now 100¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 1?Yes $23K · now 100¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 October 26-November 1?No $20K · now 100¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will Ethereum reach $2,600 October 26-November 1?No $19K · now 100¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
Specialties
689 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 91¢- Crypto
+7 pts
side won 98% of 688 · avg entry 91¢
ROI −11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 29% of 17)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 93% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 100% of 23)
- 70¢ and up: 92%(won 100% of 635)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.