Will Florida win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 84¢ · $599 held · ends Apr 20, 2027

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Tue, Apr 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$599.34

Combined PnL

$15.37

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 83.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$596.04

Total Shares714

Combined PnL+$3.94

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.3

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$11.43

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Hyperlong	Noavg 81¢	$373.41	$384.94	+$11.52	43% 235-315 (550)
ND ndb1	Noavg 82¢	$87.63	$206.13	-$7.41	66% 925-481 (1406)
JustADonk<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.89	$4.98	-$0.18	55% 920-756 (1676)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$109.43	$3.3	+$11.43	50% 1695-1680 (3375)

Hyperlong

Invested

$373.41

Value

$384.94

PnL

+$11.52

Record

43%

235-315 (550)

ndb1

Invested

$87.63

Value

$206.13

PnL

-$7.41

Record

66%

925-481 (1406)

JustADonk<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$0.18

Record

55%

920-756 (1676)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$109.43

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$11.43

Record

50%

1695-1680 (3375)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.