Consensus PnL -$14K · win rate 53% (570–505, n=1075) · PM monthly #342 · holds 115 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-13.8K
Record
570W / 505L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 1075 settled
Batting Avg
58.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1552
Source
PM monthly #342
Trades
1,027
Markets
3,620
Volume
$651.0K
Top consensus positions
115 in listed consensus markets · 48 of 115 on the consensus side (42%)- Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2026 NFC East?No $1.1K · now 93¢ · in at 77¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?No $1.1K · now 89¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (61% of 18)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?No $950 · now 83¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?Yes $880 · now 57¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (72% of 19)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?Yes $850 · now 90¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Yes $708 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?Yes $701 · now 68¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (42% of 13)
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $640 · now 75¢ · in at 72¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
331 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 63¢- Crypto
+12 pts
side won 65% of 218 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +2%
- F1
+20 pts
side won 100% of 22 · avg entry 80¢
ROI −18%
- MLB
+14 pts
side won 100% of 24 · avg entry 86¢
ROI −25%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 53% of 19)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 52% of 86)
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 75% of 110)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 99% of 116)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.