Consensus PnL -$57K · win rate 43% (168–220, n=388) · was PM monthly #998 · holds 52 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-57.3K
Record
168W / 220L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 388 settled
Batting Avg
73.7%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2291
Source
PM monthly #998
Record (90 d)
74/170 · 44%
Trades
1,754
Markets
820
Volume
$9.7M
Top consensus positions
52 in listed consensus markets · 28 of 52 on the consensus side (54%)- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $43K · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (91% of 53)
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No $11K · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (92% of 25)
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?No $5.1K · now 95¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (50% of 16)
- Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $3.0K · now 98¢with the consensus (11% of 18)
- Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No $2.8K · now 82¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $2.4K · now 97¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Yes $2.0K · now 28¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes $1.8K · now 39¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
530 settled consensus markets · held side won 44% at an average entry of 45¢- Economy
+7 pts
side won 42% of 33 · avg entry 36¢
ROI +1%
- Other Sports
+6 pts
side won 28% of 18 · avg entry 22¢
ROI +1%
- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 40% of 10 · avg entry 34¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 35% of 83 at an average 41¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 46%(won 2% of 244)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 36% of 36)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 57% of 44)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 93% of 206)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.