Consensus PnL $8.0K · win rate 56% (877–689, n=1566) · was PM monthly #428 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$8.0K
Record
877W / 689L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 1566 settled
Batting Avg
15.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1383
Source
PM monthly #428
Trades
749
Markets
1,830
Volume
$15.6M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- Will the season series between the Cardinals and 49ers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?No $1.3K · now 77¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?No $1.1K · now 83¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $125 · now 15¢ · in at 18¢with the consensus (85% of 13)
- Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Yes $12 · now 30¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Alexander Zverev be Number 1 on the End of Year ATP RankingsNo $10 · now 2¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
1,581 settled consensus markets · held side won 56% at an average entry of 57¢- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 63% of 148 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +4%
- Tennis
+5 pts
side won 71% of 95 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +6%
- College Football
+4 pts
side won 74% of 19 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 53% of 100 at an average 60¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 17% of 175)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 39% of 299)
- 50–70¢: 45%(won 58% of 717)
- 70¢ and up: 25%(won 83% of 390)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.