Will Jahmyr Gibbs win the 2026 NFL Offensive Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 77¢ · $460 held · ends Mar 1, 2027

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Mon, Mar 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$459.62

Combined PnL

$104.57

Smart Money Entry

63.5¢ → 76.5¢

+20% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$375.85

Total Shares491

Combined PnL+$17.33

Yes2 traders

Total Value$83.76

Total Shares356

Combined PnL+$87.24

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 63.5¢	$357.56	$375.08	+$17.52	45% 2965-3664 (6629)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$74	$74	+$82.67	— 4-0 (4)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$5.19	$9.76	+$4.57	64% 1050-593 (1643)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Noavg 85¢	$0.96	$0.77	-$0.19	23% 1782-6021 (7803)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$357.56

Value

$375.08

PnL

+$17.52

Record

45%

2965-3664 (6629)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74

Value

$74

PnL

+$82.67

Record

—

4-0 (4)

ndb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.19

Value

$9.76

PnL

+$4.57

Record

64%

1050-593 (1643)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$0.19

Record

23%

1782-6021 (7803)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.