Consensus PnL $63K · win rate 30% (1092–2601, n=3693) · PM monthly #190 · holds 48 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$62.7K
Record
1092W / 2601L
Win Rate
30.0%
of 3693 settled
Batting Avg
29.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2544
Source
PM monthly #190
Record (90 d)
359/1464 · 25%
Trades
2,266
Markets
5,721
Volume
$6.1M
Top consensus positions
48 in listed consensus markets · 36 of 48 on the consensus side (75%)- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Yes $893 · now 70¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (71% of 21)
- Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?No $883 · now 38¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?Yes $327 · now 59¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (53% of 15)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 0%-3%?No $260 · now 75¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?No $198 · now 80¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No $191 · now 75¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (58% of 36)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?No $136 · now 85¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Yes $100 · now 34¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,983 settled consensus markets · held side won 30% at an average entry of 31¢- NHL
+4 pts
side won 5% of 19 · avg entry 1¢
ROI 0%
- Soccer
+5 pts
side won 39% of 201 · avg entry 35¢
ROI 0%
- Economy
+6 pts
side won 43% of 75 · avg entry 36¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 24% of 163 at an average 30¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 63%(won 5% of 1258)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 44% of 173)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 58% of 137)
- 70¢ and up: 21%(won 91% of 415)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.