Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Liberty Flames Win the 2026 Conference USA Championship?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 28¢ · $108 held · ends Dec 19
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 100%
$107.52
-$102.83
56.8¢ → 28¢
-51% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 extractive-manateeCTR | Noavg 67.7¢ | $203.23 | $49.23 | -$75.27 | 34% 661-1265 (1926) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100 | Noavg 40.6¢ | $43.02 | $29.69 | -$12.06 | 52% 251-230 (481) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | No | $14.56 | $14.56 | -$2.96 | — 4-0 (4) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $26.57 | $14.04 | -$12.54 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
extractive-manateeCTRInvested
$203.23
Value
$49.23
PnL
-$75.27
Record
34%
661-1265 (1926)
Invested
$43.02
Value
$29.69
PnL
-$12.06
Record
52%
251-230 (481)
Invested
$14.56
Value
$14.56
PnL
-$2.96
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Invested
$26.57
Value
$14.04
PnL
-$12.54
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.