Consensus PnL $44K · win rate 35% (509–956, n=1465) · was PM monthly #996 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$43.9K
Record
509W / 956L
Win Rate
35.0%
of 1465 settled
Batting Avg
80.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2462
Source
PM monthly #996
Record (90 d)
237/535 · 44%
Trades
5,359
Markets
1,861
Volume
$794.9K
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 7 on the consensus side (43%)- Will the Dallas Cowboys make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?No $1.8K · now 66¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?No $1.0K · now 47¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the New York Giants make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?Yes $943 · now 58¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Carolina Panthers have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?Yes $390 · now 51¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (20% of 5)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $168 · now 25¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Chicago Bears make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?No $162 · now 26¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?Yes $15 · now 4¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
Specialties
1,555 settled consensus markets · held side won 22% at an average entry of 21¢- Finance
+7 pts
side won 43% of 168 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +3%
- Esports
+5 pts
side won 44% of 110 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +4%
- Golf
+2 pts
side won 9% of 23 · avg entry 6¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 1% of 319 at an average 2¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 71%(won 5% of 1101)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 42% of 182)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 64% of 130)
- 70¢ and up: 9%(won 91% of 142)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.