Consensus PnL $56K · win rate 50% (201–199, n=400) · PM monthly #893 · holds 82 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$56.3K
Record
201W / 199L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 400 settled
Batting Avg
35.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1756
Source
PM monthly #893
Trades
195
Markets
564
Volume
$276.1K
Top consensus positions
82 in listed consensus markets · 51 of 82 on the consensus side (62%)- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $23K · now 45¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?No $4.2K · now 82¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $3.3K · now 28¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (52% of 25)
- Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?No $2.5K · now 45¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?Yes $2.3K · now 68¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (42% of 45)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?No $2.2K · now 92¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?No $1.8K · now 74¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (80% of 15)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No $1.4K · now 80¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (89% of 28)
Specialties
183 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 66¢- Finance
+33 pts
side won 97% of 143 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +39%
- Crypto
+29 pts
side won 100% of 39 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +32%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 95% of 22)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 96% of 26)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 97% of 38)
- 70¢ and up: 53%(won 99% of 97)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.