Will Nottingham Forest be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 90¢ · $870 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$870.05
$24.74
84.6¢ → 90¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Noavg 84.2¢ | $395.96 | $413.79 | +$15.48 | 38% 1810-2977 (4787) |
AU auros2 | Noavg 84¢ | $222.6 | $228.8 | +$10.6 | 26% 6-17 (23) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 11.7¢ | $160.66 | $159.71 | -$0.95 | 41% 2322-3388 (5710) |
ND ndb1<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $68.53 | $67.76 | -$0.39 | 64% 1175-665 (1840) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.