Consensus PnL $156K · win rate 52% (1446–1352, n=2798) · was PM monthly #963 · holds 136 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$156.4K
Record
1446W / 1352L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 2798 settled
Batting Avg
88.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1611
Source
PM monthly #963 + pinned
Trades
558,933
Markets
4,360
Volume
$12.5M
Top consensus positions
136 in listed consensus markets · 95 of 136 on the consensus side (70%)- Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $4.0K · now 7¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $1.4K · now 7¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
- Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $1.3K · now 9¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?Yes $1.2K · now 4¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $1.2K · now 4¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $1.2K · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $1.1K · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $903 · now 4¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (83% of 12)
Specialties
1,749 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 36¢- College Football
+56 pts
side won 97% of 329 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +54%
- NBA
+55 pts
side won 97% of 118 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +9%
- MLB
+55 pts
side won 92% of 107 · avg entry 36¢
ROI +21%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 36%(won 45% of 624)
- 30–50¢: 38%(won 90% of 657)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 97% of 352)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 100% of 116)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.