Consensus PnL $115K · win rate 35% (736–1354, n=2090) · was PM monthly #853 · holds 195 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$115.2K
Record
736W / 1354L
Win Rate
35.0%
of 2090 settled
Batting Avg
60.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2149
Source
PM monthly #853 + pinned
Trades
58,569
Markets
3,664
Volume
$6.3M
Top consensus positions
195 in listed consensus markets · 117 of 195 on the consensus side (60%)- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $7.9K · now 71¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?No $4.3K · now 84¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?No $2.6K · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $2.2K · now 25¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $1.8K · now 30¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $1.8K · now 36¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $1.6K · now 37¢ · in at 37¢with the consensus (66% of 53)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (91% of 47)
Specialties
2,064 settled consensus markets · held side won 36% at an average entry of 36¢- Golf
+2 pts
side won 8% of 79 · avg entry 5¢
ROI 0%
- Other Sports
+4 pts
side won 47% of 70 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +1%
- Culture
+17 pts
side won 80% of 10 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 36% of 72 at an average 46¢ entry (−10 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 60%(won 4% of 1231)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 33% of 126)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 61% of 107)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 96% of 600)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.