Will the Chicago Bears make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 73¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$1.2K
$144.59
54.4¢ → 73¢
+34% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI milkteaboba | Yesavg 53.1¢ | $512.63 | $679.44 | +$195.17 | 68% 40-19 (59) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7 | Yesavg 64¢ | $172.08 | $200.32 | +$28.23 | 43% 468-621 (1089) |
 extractive-manateeCTR | Noavg 36.3¢ | $107.87 | $161.78 | -$132.82 | 33% 537-1069 (1606) |
ND ndb1 | Yesavg 47¢ | $92.18 | $146.18 | +$54 | 66% 910-479 (1389) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.