Consensus PnL $16K · win rate 40% (315–471, n=786) · PM monthly #442 · holds 42 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$16.0K
Record
315W / 471L
Win Rate
40.0%
of 786 settled
Batting Avg
62.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2371
Source
PM monthly #442
Record (90 d)
19/68 · 28%
Trades
4,112
Markets
1,219
Volume
$2.5M
Top consensus positions
42 in listed consensus markets · 29 of 42 on the consensus side (69%)- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Yes $1.9K · now 11¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?Yes $1.7K · now 15¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2026 NFC West?No $1.7K · now 80¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the Atlanta Falcons make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?No $1.4K · now 73¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $970 · now 13¢ · in at 17¢with the consensus (100% of 26)
- Will the New York Giants make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?No $952 · now 42¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?Yes $780 · now 21¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?No $597 · now 54¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
814 settled consensus markets · held side won 36% at an average entry of 33¢- NBA
+12 pts
side won 51% of 154 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +7%
- Tennis
+4 pts
side won 22% of 59 · avg entry 18¢
ROI +5%
- Other Sports
+11 pts
side won 48% of 21 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +19%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 27% of 64 at an average 28¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 55%(won 7% of 447)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 44% of 105)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 63% of 121)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 97% of 141)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.