Consensus PnL -$819K · win rate 67% (35–17, n=52) · was PM monthly #127 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-819.3K
Record
35W / 17L
Win Rate
67.0%
of 52 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#852
Source
PM monthly #127
Trades
37
Markets
70
Volume
$10.1M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 8 on the consensus side (38%)- Will Notre Dame Fighting Irish win the 2027 CFP National Championship?Yes $2.9K · now 14¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?Yes $2.8K · now 19¢ · in at 12¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?No $1.7K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship?Yes $1.0K · now 7¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?No $950 · now 89¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (50% of 16)
- Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?No $308 · now 25¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the season series between the Cardinals and 49ers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?No $35 · now 77¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Republicans win the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $35 · now 4¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
50 settled consensus markets · held side won 66% at an average entry of 68¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where milkteaboba's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: NFL — held side won 68% of 40 at an average 73¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −12%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 0% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 67% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 38%(won 58% of 19)
- 70¢ and up: 52%(won 77% of 26)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.