Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Philadelphia Eagles have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 3.6¢ · $491 held · ends Feb 16, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Tue, Feb 16, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$490.9

Combined PnL

-$784.01

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$435.86

Total Shares453

Combined PnL+$83.66

Yes1 trader

Total Value$55.04

Total Shares1,529

Combined PnL-$867.67

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x53eCc53E7	Noavg 78.9¢	$247.27	$301.43	+$55.89	43% 468-622 (1090)
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 93.8¢	$159.52	$105.43	+$4.17	50% 1694-1680 (3374)
JustADonkCTR	Yesavg 60¢	$933	$55.04	-$867.67	55% 913-754 (1667)
ND ndb1<$100	Noavg 18¢	$5.4	$29	+$23.6	66% 910-479 (1389)

0x53eCc53E7

Invested

$247.27

Value

$301.43

PnL

+$55.89

Record

43%

468-622 (1090)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$159.52

Value

$105.43

PnL

+$4.17

Record

50%

1694-1680 (3374)

JustADonkCTR

Yes

Invested

$933

Value

$55.04

PnL

-$867.67

Record

55%

913-754 (1667)

ndb1<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$29

PnL

+$23.6

Record

66%

910-479 (1389)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.8%

3.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1974.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

2074.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.