Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MT-02 House election by 15%-20%?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 84¢ · $323 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$323.29
$48.28
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
87h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Noavg 63.4¢ | $196.15 | $260.13 | +$63.98 | — 9-6 (15) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $54.1 | $49.29 | -$4.81 | — 1-0 (1) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $11.78 | $6.06 | -$5.72 | 17% 1063-5309 (6372) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $8.99 | $4.63 | -$4.36 | 16% 265-1361 (1626) |
0X 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.2¢ | $4 | $3.19 | -$0.81 | — |
Invested
$196.15
Value
$260.13
PnL
+$63.98
Record
—
9-6 (15)
fkpaCTR<$100Invested
$54.1
Value
$49.29
PnL
-$4.81
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$11.78
Value
$6.06
PnL
-$5.72
Record
17%
1063-5309 (6372)
Invested
$8.99
Value
$4.63
PnL
-$4.36
Record
16%
265-1361 (1626)
Invested
$4
Value
$3.19
PnL
-$0.81
Record
—
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.