Consensus PnL $3.7K · win rate 86% (6–1, n=7) · PM monthly #794 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$3.7K
Record
6W / 1L
Win Rate
86.0%
of 7 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#328
Source
PM monthly #794
Trades
1
Markets
15
Volume
$21.1K
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 11 on the consensus side (73%)- Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?Yes $9.7K · now 95¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?No $6.3K · now 87¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?No $1.6K · now 77¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?No $725 · now 79¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Carlos Torres Piña win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?Yes $635 · now 66¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 26?No $586 · now 36¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by June 30, 2027?Yes $183 · now 29¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the lowest Baton Rouge river level be 5.00 to 5.99 ft by November 30?Yes $55 · now 48¢ · in at 27¢with the consensus (75% of 5)
Specialties
6 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 73¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 100% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 100% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.