Consensus PnL -$29 · win rate 100% (1–0, n=1) · was PM monthly #980 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
-$28.66
Record
1W / 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
of 1 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#82
Source
PM monthly #980
Trades
34
Markets
5
Volume
$1.5K
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 5 on the consensus side (20%)- Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes $960 · now 43¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (74% of 38)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?Yes $221 · now 23¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?Yes $79 · now 11¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-03 House election by 30%-35%?Yes $32 · now 31¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-04 House election by 15%-20%?Yes $6 · now 33¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1 settled consensus market · held side won 100% at an average entry of 61¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where fkpa's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 100%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.