Will the Seattle Seahawks have more than 9.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 59¢ · $87 held · ends Feb 16, 2027
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Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$86.97
$2.26
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AU auros2<$100 | Yes | $38.24 | $38.24 | -$2.14 | — 4-0 (4) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100 | Noavg 35.1¢ | $23.6 | $33.6 | +$3.7 | 44% 506-657 (1163) |
 extractive-manatee<$100 | Yesavg 64.2¢ | $14.44 | $7.61 | -$0.8 | 34% 660-1265 (1925) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $4.5 | $7.5 | +$1.5 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.