Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucsa/Melichar, while the market favors Errani/Paolini (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
WTA Finals Doubles, Group 2 (Doubles): Bucsa/Melichar vs Errani/Paolini
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bucsa/Melichar (40%) · Bucsa/Melichar at 0.5¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
Bucsa/Melichar
5
Bucsa/Melichar 40%
$5.0K
$-6.4K
50.5¢ → 0.5¢
-99% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucsa/Melichar at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Errani/Paolini 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-35 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Bucsa/Melichar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Bucsa/Melicharavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $2.8K | $-6.1K | 54% 1691-1468 (3159) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Bucsa/Melicharavg 54.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.1K | -$470.07 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | Errani/Paoliniavg 53¢ | $321.84 | $594.01 | +$272.17 | 3% 6-200 (206) |
38 38791873984189 | Errani/Paoliniavg 81.1¢ | $542.2 | $363.83 | -$96.48 | 48% 1027-1110 (2137) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Errani/Paoliniavg 97.1¢ | $89.68 | $91.45 | +$1.76 | 53% 5575-4959 (10534) |
Invested
$8,898.58
Value
$2.8K
PnL
$-6.1K
Record
54%
1691-1468 (3159)
Invested
$1,600.19
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$470.07
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
Invested
$321.84
Value
$594.01
PnL
+$272.17
Record
3%
6-200 (206)
Invested
$542.2
Value
$363.83
PnL
-$96.48
Record
48%
1027-1110 (2137)
Invested
$89.68
Value
$91.45
PnL
+$1.76
Record
53%
5575-4959 (10534)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.