Consensus PnL $28K · win rate 34% (176–343, n=519) · was PM monthly #736 · holds 50 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$28.1K
Record
176W / 343L
Win Rate
34.0%
of 519 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2493
Source
PM monthly #736
Record (90 d)
1926/4245 · 45%
Trades
1,693
Markets
13,536
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
50 in listed consensus markets · 31 of 50 on the consensus side (62%)- Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Yes $869 · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat?No $228 · now 89¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?No $111 · now 88¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (55% of 20)
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on November 2?No $104 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 2?No $57 · now 100¢ · in at 94¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on November 2?No $57 · now 100¢ · in at 98¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 2?No $53 · now 84¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (64% of 14)
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 3°C on November 3?No $46 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
1,438 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 62¢- Other Sports
+7 pts
side won 90% of 10 · avg entry 83¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 57% of 792 at an average 58¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 36%(won 1% of 516)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 40% of 43)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 64% of 44)
- 70¢ and up: 58%(won 99% of 835)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.