Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 1.5¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$674.92

Smart Money Entry

67.9¢ → 1.5¢

-98% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,271

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No2 traders

Total Value$8.72

Total Shares581

Combined PnL-$385.94

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA Maki777	Yesavg 15¢	$77.71	$1.2K	+$1.0K	38% 9-15 (24)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Yesavg 24.9¢	$4.29	$20.08	+$15.78	47% 358-396 (754)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Noavg 67.7¢	$386.86	$8.57	-$378.29	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Noavg 78¢	$7.8	$0.15	-$7.65	50% 7981-8012 (15993)

Maki777

Yes

Invested

$77.71

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

38%

9-15 (24)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.29

Value

$20.08

PnL

+$15.78

Record

47%

358-396 (754)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Invested

$386.86

Value

$8.57

PnL

-$378.29

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$7.65

Record

50%

7981-8012 (15993)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.6%

1.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3749.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

3849.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.