Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?

12 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 86¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 4

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$-3.8K

Smart Money Entry

83.8¢ → 85.5¢

+2% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 19 top traders (63%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares12,530

Combined PnL+$252.13

Yes7 traders

Total Value$844.63

Total Shares5,825

Combined PnL$-4.1K

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 85.8¢	$5.8K	$5.7K	-$22.06	38% 20-32 (52)
bernardbulletin	Noavg 82.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$51.25	69% 987-450 (1437)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 75¢	$687.55	$788.39	+$96.26	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Noavg 87¢	$789.84	$780.76	-$13.62	67% 751-378 (1129)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 87.1¢	$721.66	$701.5	-$11.93	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 67¢	$487.03	$621.5	+$134.48	61% 203-132 (335)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 11.1¢	$10.7K	$488.47	$-3.7K	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 87.3¢	$415.36	$421.29	+$5.93	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 86.8¢	$381.63	$273.86	-$1.17	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
CO cowcatCTR	Yesavg 37.9¢	$387.41	$144.13	-$243.28	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 87.2¢	$137.15	$137.95	+$0.8	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.9¢	$84.38	$73.42	-$10.96	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
nicoco89CTR	Yesavg 36¢	$124.38	$50.1	-$74.28	65% 1075-583 (1658)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$45.35	$47.13	-$1.47	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$64.88	$39.2	-$25.68	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
flow-trader-at-optiver<$100	Noavg 53¢	$19.51	$31.66	+$11.96	39% 965-1508 (2473)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$17.03	$17.27	+$0.24	40% 174-265 (439)
Ryxon21CTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$5.4	$2.18	-$3.38	71% 318-130 (448)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$0.91	$0.9	-$0.01	77% 8889-2658 (11547)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$5,762.81

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$22.06

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

bernardbulletin

Invested

$1,178.33

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$51.25

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

cocococococo

Invested

$687.55

Value

$788.39

PnL

+$96.26

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Invested

$789.84

Value

$780.76

PnL

-$13.62

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$721.66

Value

$701.5

PnL

-$11.93

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$487.03

Value

$621.5

PnL

+$134.48

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,700.98

Value

$488.47

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$415.36

Value

$421.29

PnL

+$5.93

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

ghorrock

Invested

$381.63

Value

$273.86

PnL

-$1.17

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

cowcatCTR

Yes

Invested

$387.41

Value

$144.13

PnL

-$243.28

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$137.15

Value

$137.95

PnL

+$0.8

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.38

Value

$73.42

PnL

-$10.96

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

nicoco89CTR

Yes

Invested

$124.38

Value

$50.1

PnL

-$74.28

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.35

Value

$47.13

PnL

-$1.47

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.88

Value

$39.2

PnL

-$25.68

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

flow-trader-at-optiver<$100

Invested

$19.51

Value

$31.66

PnL

+$11.96

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$17.03

Value

$17.27

PnL

+$0.24

Record

40%

174-265 (439)

Ryxon21CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.4

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$3.38

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0.01

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 19 top traders (63%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.0%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.