Weather: what top Polymarket traders hold
Temperatures, storms and other weather markets. These are the Weather markets on Polymarket in which at least five of the top traders we track hold a position, with the side most of them hold (the consensus), what share of them hold it and the market's own price for that side.
A consensus is a head count of who holds what, not a probability, and following it did not pay on average in our backtests — see how it works.
- Live consensus markets
- 22
- Recently settled, consensus right
- 77 of 113
- Prices as of
- Nov 1, 14:41 UTC
Live Weather consensus markets (22)
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Traders hold Yes 73%11 of 15 tradersMarket price 90¢$166K held
- Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Traders hold Yes 75%9 of 12 tradersMarket price 8.0¢$10K heldagainst the market price
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Traders hold No 90%9 of 10 tradersMarket price 96¢$19K held
- Blue tsunami in 2026?Traders hold Yes 67%6 of 9 tradersMarket price 68¢$13K held
- Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?Traders hold Yes 43%3 of 7 tradersMarket price 29¢$3K heldagainst the market price
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Traders hold No 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 99¢$21K held
- Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?Traders hold Yes 50%3 of 6 tradersMarket price 0.1¢$930 heldagainst the market price
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on November 2?Traders hold No 60%3 of 6 tradersMarket price 75¢$616 held
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on November 1?Traders hold No 60%3 of 6 tradersMarket price 82¢$475 held
- Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Traders hold Yes 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 51¢$8K held
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 1?Traders hold Yes 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 99¢$1K held
- Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?Traders hold No 80%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 93¢$985 held
- Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Traders hold Yes 80%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 34¢$970 heldagainst the market price
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on November 1?Traders hold No 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 1.4¢$839 heldagainst the market price
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on November 1?Traders hold Yes 50%2 of 5 tradersMarket price 31¢$830 heldagainst the market price
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on November 2?Traders hold No 75%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 78¢$802 held
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on November 2?Traders hold No 75%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 80¢$646 held
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 2?Traders hold Yes 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 36¢$568 heldagainst the market price
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on November 1?Traders hold Yes 80%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 81¢$549 held
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on November 1?Traders hold Yes 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 97¢$509 held
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on November 1?Traders hold No 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 71¢$481 held
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on November 2?Traders hold No 80%4 of 5 tradersMarket price 99¢$118 held
Top traders in Weather
Tracked traders with 10 or more settled Weather consensus markets whose side won more often than its entry price implied, ranked by how much (on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short lucky run does not rank first). These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero.
- 1.claudesports+65 ptsside won 100% of 27 · avg entry 35¢ · ROI +62%
- 2.badatmath.+50 ptsside won 100% of 881 · avg entry 49¢ · ROI +46%
- 3.0x9c95da0c1ec3394330998296582c2739cfa752db+48 ptsside won 100% of 581 · avg entry 52¢ · ROI +54%
- 4.0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0+39 ptsside won 99% of 599 · avg entry 60¢ · ROI +32%
- 5.0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271+39 ptsside won 100% of 658 · avg entry 61¢ · ROI +41%
- 6.0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98+39 ptsside won 99% of 580 · avg entry 60¢ · ROI +34%
- 7.hello.67+38 ptsside won 98% of 1301 · avg entry 60¢ · ROI +30%
- 8.0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f+37 ptsside won 100% of 957 · avg entry 63¢ · ROI +38%
- 9.HellYeahTrader+35 ptsside won 100% of 344 · avg entry 65¢ · ROI +38%
- 10.fildoro+33 ptsside won 98% of 1195 · avg entry 65¢ · ROI +38%
Recently settled Weather markets
What the tracked traders held when each market settled, and how it came out. A handful of markets says little about the next one.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on November 1?Result: YesTraders held Yes 50%consensus was right
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on November 1?Result: NoTraders held No 50%consensus was right
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on November 1?Result: NoTraders held No 50%consensus was right
- Will Vance peak at Category 2?Result: YesTraders held Yes 50%consensus was right
- Will Vance peak at Category 4?Result: NoTraders held Yes 67%consensus was wrong
- Will Vance peak at Category 3?Result: NoTraders held No 80%consensus was right
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on October 31?Result: NoTraders held No 75%consensus was right
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on October 31?Result: NoTraders held No 71%consensus was right
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on October 31?Result: YesTraders held Yes 67%consensus was right
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on October 31?Result: YesTraders held No 80%consensus was wrong
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on October 31?Result: NoTraders held No 78%consensus was right
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on October 31?Result: NoTraders held Yes 25%consensus was wrong
Holders update as the tracked traders trade, and prices refresh about once a minute. Only wallets with a position of at least 1 share count as holders; the side is the one with the most money behind it among holders with $100 or more in the market. PolyConsensus is not affiliated with Polymarket and this is not investment advice. More: all topics, the trader leaderboard, large trades.