Consensus PnL -$5.0K · win rate 45% (447–553, n=1000) · PM monthly #582 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-5.0K
Record
447W / 553L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 1000 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1978
Source
PM monthly #582
Trades
239
Markets
1,029
Volume
$326.9K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Falcons vs. BuccaneersBuccaneers $481 · now 55¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (47% of 17)
Specialties
507 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 47¢- Tennis
+44 pts
side won 91% of 351 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +38%
- NFL
+44 pts
side won 94% of 35 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +46%
- Soccer
+23 pts
side won 70% of 84 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +21%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 55% of 47)
- 30–50¢: 42%(won 88% of 212)
- 50–70¢: 48%(won 91% of 244)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 100% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.