Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Falcons, while the market favors Buccaneers (56%). 8 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (57%) · Falcons at 45¢ · $63K held · ends Nov 1

Falcons45¢Buccaneers55¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falcons

Consensus Traders

Falcons 57%

Total Value

$63.3K

Combined PnL

-$277.67

Smart Money Entry

44.4¢ → 44.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Buccaneers 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Falcons45%

Buccaneers56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buccaneers6 traders

Total Value$30.3K

Total Shares54,634

Combined PnL-$237.19

Falcons8 traders

Total Value$33.0K

Total Shares74,703

Combined PnL-$40.48

Buccaneers — 43%Falcons — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA wan123	Buccaneersavg 56¢	$28.0K	$27.8K	-$250	39% 196-304 (500)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Falconsavg 44¢	$13.2K	$13.2K	+$0.28	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Falconsavg 45¢	$10.3K	$10.2K	-$114.35	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Falconsavg 44¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$37	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
VeryLucky888CTR	Falconsavg 44¢	$4.4K	$2.8K	+$68.31	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
LI lissartter	Buccaneersavg 55¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$17.88	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
LI lightotunnel35CTR	Falconsavg 45¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$15.25	58% 78-56 (134)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Falconsavg 45¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$25.65	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Falconsavg 44¢	$899.8	$899.8	+$10.23	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Buccaneersavg 56¢	$499.08	$490.17	-$4.46	45% 400-497 (897)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Falconsavg 45¢	$94.32	$92.22	-$1.05	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
TimeTraveler<$100	Buccaneersavg 56¢	$56	$55	-$0.5	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Buccaneersavg 56¢	$50.16	$49.5	-$0.18	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
SL slimjoe<$100	Buccaneersavg 52¢	$1.08	$1.15	+$0.07	51% 6525-6188 (12713)

wan123

Buccaneers

Invested

$28,000

Value

$27.8K

PnL

-$250

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Falcons

Invested

$13,222.79

Value

$13.2K

PnL

+$0.28

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

UpTheBluesCTR

Falcons

Invested

$10,291.41

Value

$10.2K

PnL

-$114.35

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

HerdoniaCTR

Falcons

Invested

$3,311.39

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$37

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

VeryLucky888CTR

Falcons

Invested

$4,400.77

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$68.31

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

lissartter

Buccaneers

Invested

$1,966.35

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$17.88

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

lightotunnel35CTR

Falcons

Invested

$1,372.65

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$15.25

Record

58%

78-56 (134)

Forecastication2CTR

Falcons

Invested

$1,154.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$25.65

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Falcons

Invested

$899.8

Value

$899.8

PnL

+$10.23

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Buccaneers

Invested

$499.08

Value

$490.17

PnL

-$4.46

Record

45%

400-497 (897)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$94.32

Value

$92.22

PnL

-$1.05

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

TimeTraveler<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$56

Value

$55

PnL

-$0.5

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$50.16

Value

$49.5

PnL

-$0.18

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

slimjoe<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0.07

Record

51%

6525-6188 (12713)

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Buccaneers 56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.