Consensus PnL -$6.4K · win rate 38% (449–719, n=1168) · was PM monthly #991 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-6.4K
Record
449W / 719L
Win Rate
38.0%
of 1168 settled
Batting Avg
83.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2119
Source
PM monthly #991
Trades
525
Markets
1,206
Volume
$1.0M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $1.8K · now 7¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $832 · now 1¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
Specialties
644 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 39¢- NFL
+55 pts
side won 100% of 12 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +58%
- NBA
+42 pts
side won 89% of 36 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +34%
- Tennis
+31 pts
side won 70% of 289 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +23%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 38% of 134)
- 30–50¢: 54%(won 71% of 347)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 87% of 163)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.