Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 7.0¢ · $7K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 82%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

3.8¢ → 7¢

+84% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares98,614

Combined PnL+$3.2K

No2 traders

Total Value$27.51

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$1.17

Yes — 82%No — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	Yesavg 5.5¢	$2.0K	$2.5K	+$549.26	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$789.26	$1.8K	+$1.0K	38% 425-683 (1108)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$193.9	$810.01	+$616.12	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 3¢	$298.37	$697.36	+$399.33	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
IM immanuelcanCTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$21.11	$642.89	+$370.62	53% 906-789 (1695)
NE neymar1CTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$89.68	$178.53	+$88.86	30% 324-771 (1095)
bosshogCTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$90	$176.25	+$86.25	72% 1052-415 (1467)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$7.61	$91.35	+$50.6	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$17.63	$37.74	+$21.52	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 97¢	$23.85	$22.87	-$0.99	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
0X 0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$4.84	$4.65	-$0.19	73% 41-15 (56)

NooseracCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,973.94

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$549.26

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR

Yes

Invested

$789.26

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

38%

425-683 (1108)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$193.9

Value

$810.01

PnL

+$616.12

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$298.37

Value

$697.36

PnL

+$399.33

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

immanuelcanCTR

Yes

Invested

$21.11

Value

$642.89

PnL

+$370.62

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

neymar1CTR

Yes

Invested

$89.68

Value

$178.53

PnL

+$88.86

Record

30%

324-771 (1095)

bosshogCTR

Yes

Invested

$90

Value

$176.25

PnL

+$86.25

Record

72%

1052-415 (1467)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.61

Value

$91.35

PnL

+$50.6

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.63

Value

$37.74

PnL

+$21.52

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$23.85

Value

$22.87

PnL

-$0.99

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

0xd9670ea74384c1e1b9dc1e4267ffadaf4cdd140<$100

Invested

$4.84

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.19

Record

73%

41-15 (56)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.4%

7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1087.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

1187.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.